Switch To Dominate Next-Gen Market

Despite not yet being released, DFC Intelligence projects the Nintendo Switch 2 to be the best-selling next-gen console. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, predicts sales exceeding 15-17 million units in 2025 and over 80 million by 2028. This makes Nintendo the projected console market leader, surpassing both Microsoft and Sony.

This forecast stems from the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 release, giving it a significant head start over competitors. While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain largely conceptual, with anticipated releases around 2028. This three-year gap provides a substantial advantage to Nintendo. DFC Intelligence suggests only one post-Switch 2 console will achieve significant success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established player base and strong IPs.

The Switch's enduring popularity is undeniable, having surpassed the PlayStation 2's lifetime US sales, reaching second place in all-time US console sales behind only the Nintendo DS, according to Circana (formerly NPD). This achievement is particularly noteworthy given the Switch's reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.

DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the video game industry as a whole. After a two-year slump, the industry is projected to resume strong growth through the end of the decade, with 2025 anticipated as a particularly strong year. This resurgence is attributed to new product releases, including the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI, both slated for 2025. The global gaming audience is projected to exceed 4 billion players by 2027, fueled by the growing popularity of portable gaming and the continued expansion of esports and gaming influencers. Hardware sales, both PC and console, are also on the rise.